Your Post-Election Briefing

What happened?

Well, folks, Election Day is finally over. Donald Trump took back the Presidency, and Republicans won the Senate. The House is still in play for both parties as we await more results. What happened? Let’s take a look.

Trump Wins the Presidency

The presidential race was a victory for Republicans, with Donald Trump winning the Electoral College and (possibly) the popular vote. Shockingly, Trump managed to match or build on his 2020 support in every state. This phenomenon was especially pronounced in Democratic-leaning areas—California, New York, and New Jersey all saw 10-point Republican swings from four years ago.

This is the opposite of what I expected. Evidence shows many conservatives considered leaving states like California over the past few years (and I suspect many did). I thought this population shift would make these states more liberal. But apparently, it didn’t because voters there still swung to Trump.

It’s hard to explain how ugly this is for Democrats. A major party hasn’t made gains everywhere from the previous presidential cycle since at least 1980, if not earlier. Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory that year was the closest—relative to 1976, he increased support in every state except Vermont.

Trump’s win was not decisive, however. Vice President Kamala Harris still garnered 70 million votes and hung onto all major Democratic strongholds. Yet this election represents a fracturing of the Democratic base. According to the Associated Press, Trump made gains among key Democratic blocs—especially 18-to-29-year-olds, Black voters, and Hispanic voters.

It was telling that the economy was the most important issue for voters this year. As I said on Wednesday, Democrats did a particularly poor job reassuring voters about the economy—and it showed. Voters interviewed by the Associated Press rated Trump higher on that issue than Harris, and 6 in 10 said the economy was not good or poor.

State-Level Polling

I initially believed state-level polls were underrating Harris. Instead, they underestimated Donald Trump’s support for the third straight election cycle. While poll margins were generally more accurate than in 2020, they failed again to predict the extent of Trump’s victory. Overall, they missed by an average of 2.8 points, greater than in 2016.

I also suspected polls were under-weighting abortion’s impact on this election, but I was wrong again. Rather, an interesting phenomenon emerged where ballot measures protecting abortion passed in many states while Trump held onto his 2020 margins or increased support. I’m not sure why this is, but I suspect voters felt Trump and abortion were two separate issues and voted accordingly. This might be something I may examine in a future article.

Iowa

I talked a lot on Election Day about Ann Selzer’s Iowa poll and what it meant for the presidential race. I concluded Selzer was likely off but the poll offered evidence of a late Harris swing from independent voters. While I was correct that the poll was misleading, I didn’t expect it to miss by 16 percent. Selzer’s poll had Harris up three points statewide, but Trump carried Iowa by 13 instead. This illustrates the pitfalls of modern polling: sometimes the numbers you get are just plain wrong. In this case, though, I suspect the methodology had a bit to do with it—Selzer used random digit dialing (calling random telephone numbers in the state and hoping people respond), which can be notoriously finicky.

The Senate

As expected, Republicans took back the Senate. They picked up victories in Montana, West Virginia, and Ohio—all in line with pundits’ estimates. They also managed to win in Pennsylvania, a surprise given that some believed Democrats could hold that seat. This gives Republicans at least a six-seat majority over Democrats.

Some races were less close than I thought. Take Nebraska, for example. Many pollsters noted that independent Dan Osborn had a chance to steal one of Nebraska’s seats, but incumbent Republican Deb Fischer managed to win comfortably.

This was a tough map for Democrats to win. With Joe Manchin retiring in deep-red West Virginia, Jon Tester’s tough fight in Montana, and other swing-state races, the obstacles for Senate Democrats were simply too difficult to overcome. However, this result was far from the worst-case scenario—Democrats still held the line in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, and Arizona is still counting ballots. Democrats can only hope Ruben Gallego can win that race to limit the damage.

The House of Representatives

Even as I write this article, results from House races are trickling in from across the country. Four days after Election Day, many are still too close to call.

There were nine key races I paid attention to on Election Day. So far, the Associated Press has called four of these for Democrats and four for Republicans. California’s 45th District is still too close to call, with Republican Michelle Steel up by about three points on Democrat Derek Tran. We won’t know California’s results for a while, though—California will continue to receive and count mail-in ballots through November 12.

As it currently stands, Democrats have a slim path to a House majority but Republicans seem poised to maintain control. At the time of publication, the Associated Press has called 212 seats for Republicans, six shy of an outright majority. Meanwhile, only 200 seats have been called for Democrats. States will continue to release results over the next couple of days—pay attention to them, as these final races will determine who takes the House.

Conclusion

It was a tough night for Democrats and a good one for Republicans, though not the most extreme scenario for either party. I say this because Congressional races were not a wipeout for Democrats—on the contrary, their losses seem relatively limited. That isn’t to say these losses are significant, however; Republicans could have a government trifecta, making it much easier to pass policy. But we will have to wait for the remaining House results to come to a definitive conclusion.

I won’t bother explaining why this happened—I already discussed it before and likely will again soon. But the evidence is clear: Republicans successfully made inroads into the Democratic coalition. Democrats now have to think long and hard about what they must do to win them back.